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Re: [ga] Early Warning: CAIDA Analysis of IPv4 consumption rates

  • To: Thomas Narten <narten@xxxxxxxxxx>, Danny Younger <dannyyounger@xxxxxxxxx>
  • Subject: Re: [ga] Early Warning: CAIDA Analysis of IPv4 consumption rates
  • From: Hugh Dierker <hdierker2204@xxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Sat, 15 Apr 2006 07:43:40 -0700 (PDT)
  • Cc: ga@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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  • In-reply-to: <200604061458.k36EwZuN018492@cichlid.raleigh.ibm.com>
  • Sender: owner-ga@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Thomas,
   
  I have looked at this from a few angles now, from pure economics to legality to politics.
  It would seem that having a finite resource and aforeknowledge that the end is coming, should produce the desired inevitable natural reactions of evaluation and reevaluation and then the actions of conservation, reallocation of inneficient useage and most importantly innovation and renovation. I believe this is already the case minus efficiency, yet that takes second seat to freedom and capitalism.
   
  However in this case if we limit ourselves (and it appears both political and economics driven) we have apparently limited ourselves to "IPv4". Certainly we have seen at the radical end - Extreme IP man Dr. Baptista IPv8 + - and the more conservative end IPv6.
   
  So my questions are basically thus; Why should we care that the buggy whip business is going under when we are driving SUV Hummers and horses are for recreation and racing. If I knew someone with say about 1,000 IPv4 addresses allocated to them, what should I tell them to do with them?
   
  eric

Thomas Narten <narten@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
  Danny Younger writes:

> "CAIDA's analysis of IPv4 consumption rates makes use
> of an exponential model that predicts that, if current
> IPv4 address allocation rates prevail, IANA will
> allocate all unused IPv4 space by 2008, with
> exhaustion of the additional multicast and special-use
> space following in late 2008 and early 2009." 

> http://www.caida.org/research/id-consumption/

Folks truly interested in this topic, would do well to broadly review
the work being done in this space. Unsurprisingly, the predicted
exhaustion date of IPv4 adddresses depends a lot on what assumptions
are being made. Caida's analysis appears to be the most aggressive
date I've seen yet.

See also

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/ipj_8-3/ipv4.html.

See also Geoff Huston's work (mentioned/cited in the above reference)
at http://bgp.potaroo.net/ipv4/.

And for those who just want the punchline, those projections (also
with caveats) suggest a 2009-2012 exhaustion date.

YMMV.

Thomas


		
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