Re: [ga] Early Warning: CAIDA Analysis of IPv4 consumption rates

[JFC Morfin <jefsey@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

At 15:12 07/04/2006, Danny Younger wrote:

> Hi Jefsey,
> My interest is in knowing

I understand you. But the I* community  has NOT been a good stewart 
of the world digital ecosystem. And will never be. This is normal. It 
never wanted it. It was not meant to. This job was imposed onto a 
demo system by the US communications policy (deregulation prevented 
an nationwide system to exist.The rest of the world needed the US 
datacoms market so it had to regress to the US inadequate solution).

> (1) what global policies are in place that deal with IPv4 reclamation;

There is none, because the Internet is not a private, public company. 
It is a common system where many people have many policies. With a 
huge qui pro quo named ICANN and de facto monopolies named RIRs. 
There is only one question: how can we organise. After the failure of 
@large and of this list to understand the job and to organise, the 
world has decided of the IGF forum  to discuss it.  IP addressing is 
for the time being not a top priority. Simply because there are more 
important ones in the Intermess.

>  (2) what impact IPv4 depletion will have upon the global business 
> community, and the costs associated with ramping up to IPv6;

The impact - I quoted it started a long ago. It hampers the network 
for long. And will continue. Again @large were the  response, because 
the response can only be grassroots. So  the solution will NOT be 
IPv6 by RIRs. It will be IPv6 by ITU or/and NAT.Simply because no 
oneis interested inpaying RIRs for a service no one would need if it 
addressing was organised differently.

>  (3)is a black market for IPv4 address expected to emerge, and if 
> so, can policies be put into place that would serve to deter anticipated
> price gouging and profiteering?  Perhaps someone from the addressing 
> community can speak to these points.

This is part of thepriority to fight crime. No one yet can know the 
result before Sept/Nov. (IGF)

> It comes down to this... are we being good stewards of  this 
> diminishing resource?

No. Commons problem.
But no one asked for the burden.
Except now the author of RFC 3935 who even claims competence and 
responsibility.
jfc



> Danny
>
> --- JFC Morfin <jefsey@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > Danny,
> > this kind of "prediction" is of low interest. What
> > is of interest for
> > us users is the date of the impact of this shortage
> > on our ability to
> > use the Internet as we should. This date is a long
> > ago. It is exactly
> > when HTTP 1.1. has been deemed necessary, with a
> > virtual host routing
> > on unconsistant names instead of IP addresses. That
> > day NATs were
> > legitimated. The Internat was borned. The Internat
> > may very well be
> > the future of the Internet.
> > jfc
> >
> >
> > At 17:37 06/04/2006, Danny Younger wrote:
> >
> > >Last October, CAIDA's K.C. Claffy predicted IPv4
> > >depletion by 2008 at the "Future of IPv4
> > Roundtable".
> > >Notes and commentary (including a different set of
> > >predictions from Cisco's Tony Hain) may be found
> > at:
> >
> >http://www.arin.net/meetings/minutes/ARIN_XVI/ppm_minutes_day1.html#anchor_8
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >__________________________________________________
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