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Re: [ga] Early Warning: CAIDA Analysis of IPv4 consumption rates
- To: Danny Younger <dannyyounger@xxxxxxxxx>
- Subject: Re: [ga] Early Warning: CAIDA Analysis of IPv4 consumption rates
- From: Thomas Narten <narten@xxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 06 Apr 2006 10:58:35 -0400
- Cc: ga@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- In-reply-to: Message from Danny Younger <dannyyounger@yahoo.com> of "Thu, 06 Apr 2006 06:39:53 PDT." <20060406133953.88201.qmail@web30813.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
- Sender: owner-ga@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Danny Younger <dannyyounger@xxxxxxxxx> writes:
> "CAIDA's analysis of IPv4 consumption rates makes use
> of an exponential model that predicts that, if current
> IPv4 address allocation rates prevail, IANA will
> allocate all unused IPv4 space by 2008, with
> exhaustion of the additional multicast and special-use
> space following in late 2008 and early 2009."
> http://www.caida.org/research/id-consumption/
Folks truly interested in this topic, would do well to broadly review
the work being done in this space. Unsurprisingly, the predicted
exhaustion date of IPv4 adddresses depends a lot on what assumptions
are being made. Caida's analysis appears to be the most aggressive
date I've seen yet.
See also
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/ipj_8-3/ipv4.html.
See also Geoff Huston's work (mentioned/cited in the above reference)
at http://bgp.potaroo.net/ipv4/.
And for those who just want the punchline, those projections (also
with caveats) suggest a 2009-2012 exhaustion date.
YMMV.
Thomas
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